Which statement differentiates intercept probability from kill probability?

• A. Intercept probability is the chance the interceptor meets the target; kill probability is the chance the target is destroyed after contact.
• B. Intercept probability is the chance the target is destroyed after contact; kill probability is the chance the interceptor meets the target.
• C. Intercept probability relates to weather effects; kill probability relates to radar range.
• D. Intercept probability concerns weather effects; kill probability concerns radar coverage.

Answer: (A)

Two probabilities govern how an air defense system succeeds in an engagement: intercept probability and kill probability. Intercept probability is the chance the interceptor actually meets the target and enters a valid engagement geometry—getting within range and timing to attempt the kill. Kill probability is the chance the target is destroyed after that contact, reflecting the weapon’s effectiveness and the guidance accuracy once contact is made. In practice, the system’s overall chance of destroying the target is the product of these two: intercept probability times the kill probability after intercept. For example, if intercept is 0.8 and kill after intercept is 0.75, the overall probability of kill is 0.8 × 0.75 = 0.60 (60%). The other statements either swap the definitions or bring in unrelated factors like weather or radar range, which do not define the difference between intercept and kill probabilities.